Issue of Vaccinations and Increased Measles Outbreaks

Hypotheses:

Alternative 1:

• H0: There is no relationship between a State’s education levels and measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination rates for children enrolled in kindergarten.
• H1: There is a direct relationship between a State’s education levels and measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination rates for children enrolled in kindergarten.

The first hypotheses will help to understand if higher education levels affect the percentage of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination rates for children enrolled in kindergarten.

Alternative 2:

• H0: There is no relationship between a State’s liberalness (vs conservativeness) and measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination rates for children enrolled in kindergarten.
• H1: There is a direct relationship between a State’s liberalness (vs conservativeness) and measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination rates for children enrolled in kindergarten.

The second hypotheses will help to understand if a state’s citizen’s liberalness affects the percentage of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination rates for children enrolled in kindergarten.

Methods:

Data

The data for this study was collected from various sources; I compiled surveys and tables acquired on the United States Census Bureau website (2018), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website (2018), as well as Richard C. Fording’s State Ideology Data website (2018).  I used the quick facts dashboard, found on the United States Census Bureau website, to obtain bachelor’s degree percentages and median family income percentages by state; 2017 data was used to align with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention vaccination percentage by state.  Citizen liberalness percentage information was pulled from Richard C. Fording’s State Ideology Data; Updated Measures of Citizen and Government Ideology website (2018).  Estimated vaccination coverage and vaccination exemption percentages among children enrolled in kindergarten by state was obtained from the 2017-2018 School Year Vaccination Coverage Report, located on the SchoolVaxViewInteractive dashboard (single year reports), within the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website (2018). 

I selected the above data to help explain whether obtaining a higher education degree, and or living in a state that is more conservative, or liberal leaning, will impact a state’s measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination rates for children enrolled in kindergarten.

Variables

The dependent variable is each state’s estimated 2017-2018 measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination coverage percentage for children enrolled in kindergarten. My independent variables are the percentage of people in each state with a bachelor’s degree, citizen liberalness by state, vaccination exemption percentages by state and reported median family income by state.

Test

The data obtained was formulated into the above mentioned hypotheses and tested using a linear regression model in SPSS.  Multiple linear regression was used to explain the relationship between one dependent variable and multiple independent variables; the dependent variable is measured against one independent variable, while holding all other independent variables constant.

Results:

The following results depict the statistical information and data analysis after testing.  Table 1 reflects the median and quartiles for the dependent and independent variables.  Figure 1 shows the states percentages of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccinations for children enrolled in kindergarten.

Table 1: Summary Statistics of 17-18 MMR Kindergarten Vaccination Percentages by State.

N = 50

Figure 1: 17-18 MMR Vaccination Percentages for Children Enrolled in Kindergarten by State.

The research

Table 2: 17-18 MMR Vaccination Percentages for Children Enrolled in Kindergarten Explained by Bachelor’s Degree, Median Family Income, MMR Vaccination Exemptions and Citizen’s Liberalness by State.

*p<.05

Table 2 shows that the model explains about 33% of the variation in MMR vaccination percentages for children enrolled in kindergarten by state.  I am confident there is a negative relationship between MMR vaccination exemptions and MMR vaccinations for children enrolled in kindergarten by state, holding all else constant.  There is a 0.678% decrease in MMR vaccinations for children enrolled in kindergarten by state for every 1% increase in MMR vaccination exemptions.  As MMR exemptions rise it is expected that the amount of MMR vaccinations for children enrolled in kindergarten by state would fall.  I cannot be confident of a relationship between MMR vaccinations for children enrolled in kindergarten and bachelor’s degree or citizen’s liberalness by state and I failed to reject my null hypotheses.

Conclusion:

As reported above, I was unable to find statistical significance between MMR vaccination percentages for children enrolled in kindergarten by state and bachelor’s degrees and state’s citizen’s liberalness and, therefore, failed to reject the null hypothesis.  This means MMR vaccination percentages for children enrolled in kindergarten by state are not affected by these outside factors (in a statistically significant way).

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Upon completion of the multiple linear regression testing, I was dissatisfied in the independent variables I chose for my dataset.  Had I done more background research beforehand, I believe I would have selected a different subset of outside variables for my study, which may have shown statistical significance between MMR vaccination rates by state for children enrolled in kindergarten, holding all else constant (pending new independent variables).  Further research as to why non-medical vaccination rates are on the rise will be required to determine what variables could be negatively impacting MMR kindergarten vaccination rates by state.

Bibliography:

• SchoolVaxView | School Vaccination Coverage Reports 2016-17 | CDC. (2018). Retrieved from https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/imz-managers/coverage/schoolvaxview/data-reports/coverage-reports/2017-18.html
• SchoolVaxView | School Vaccination Exemptions Dashboard 2016-17 | CDC. (2018). Retrieved from https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/imz-managers/coverage/schoolvaxview/data-reports/exemptions-dashboard/2017-18.html
• State Ideology Data. (2018). Retrieved from https://rcfording.wordpress.com/state-ideology-data/
• U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: United States. (2018). Retrieved from https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/dashboard/US/PST045218